Projected health workforce requirements and shortage for addressing the disease burden in the WHO Africa Region, 2022–2030: a needs-based modelling study

Abstract

The needs-based requirement for health workers in Africa was estimated to be 9.75 million in 2022, with an expected 21% increase to 11.8 million by 2030. The available health workers in 2022 covered 43% of the needs-based requirements and are anticipated to improve to 49% by 2030 if the current trajectory of training and education outputs is maintained. An increase of at least 40% in the stock of health workers between 2022 and 2030 is anticipated, but this increase would still leave a needs-based shortage of 6.1 million workers by 2030. Considering only the SDG 3.c.1 tracer occupations (medical doctors, nurses, midwives, pharmacists and dentists), the projected needs-based shortage is 5.3 million by 2030. In sensitivity analysis, the needs-based shortage is most amenable to the prevalence of diseases/risk factors and professional standards for service delivery CONCLUSIONS: The WHO African Region would need to more than double its 2022 HWF stock if the growing population's health needs are to be adequately addressed. The present analysis offers new prospects to better plan HWF efforts considering country-specific HWF structure, and the burden of disease.