The Role of Digital Finance in Shaping Agricultural Economic Resilience: Evidence from Machine Learning

Abstract

This study offers detailed recommendations on strengthening government support without harming digital finance benefits, especially in negatively affected areas, which is critical for enhancing the inclusiveness of the digital financial landscape and reducing social disparities. This paper uses year 2011–2022 panel data from China’s 31 provinces to empirically analyze digital finance’s effects, mechanisms, and heterogeneity on agricultural economy resilience with a two-way, fixed-effect model. It further explores each feature’s impacts using machine learning methodologies like the random forest, GBRT, SHAP value method, and ALE plot. The findings show that digital finance boosted agri-economy resilience, varying by food-producing status and marketization. Among all the features analyzed, government input, urbanization level, and planting structure emerged as the most critical factors influencing agri-economy resilience. Notably, government input negatively moderated this relationship. The ALE plot revealed non-linear effects of digital finance and planting structure on agri-economy resilience.