Verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) in structural analysis of concrete dams

Abstract

Over the past three decades, advancements in computational power and numerical methods have significantly enhanced the role of structural analyses in the design and safety assessment of dams. Simulating concrete dam behavior, particularly in interactions with reservoir water and rock foundations, poses formidable computational challenges. Additionally, the need to define uncertainties related to material parameters, loading conditions, and modeling strategy adds complexity to the modeling process, therefore, quantifying sources of uncertainty is crucial for maintaining credibility and confidence in analysis results. This paper provides a synthesis and an overview of existing research and presents a generic framework for evaluating the credibility of advanced structural analysis methods for concrete dams, with a focus on their limitations and associated uncertainties. The methodology includes a comprehensive process for structural analysis, verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification, aiming to facilitate condition assessments of concrete dams.