Spatio-Temporal Variations of Indonesian Rainfall and Their Links to Indo-Pacific Modes

Abstract

The analysis of rainfall patterns in the Indonesian region utilized the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method to identify spatial and temporal variations. The study evaluated the dynamic influence of the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the Tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO) on Indonesian rainfall using monthly data from the Southeast Asian Climate Assessment and Dataset (SACA&D) spanning from January 1981 to December 2016 and encompassing three extreme El Niño events in 1982/1983, 1997/1998 and 2015/2016. Using combined reanalysis and gridded-observation data, this study evaluates the potential impact of the two primary modes in the tropical Indo-Pacific region, namely the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Indonesian rainfall. The analysis using the EOF method revealed two main modes with variances of 35.23% and 13.07%, respectively. Moreover, the results indicated that rainfall in Indonesia is highly sensitive to sea surface temperatures (SST) in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and the central Pacific Ocean (Niño3.4 and Niño3 areas), suggesting that changes in SST could significantly alter rainfall patterns in the region. This research is useful for informing government policies related to anticipating changes in rainfall variability as part of Indonesia’s preparedness for hydrometeorological disasters.