Improving flood forecast accuracy based on explainable convolutional neural network by Grad-CAM method

Abstract

• Proposed a novel framework of the ECNN model that can extract time-related information for flood forecasting. • The Grad-CAM method can quantitatively evaluate the importance of input data and improve the interpretability of the ECNN model. • The ECNN model can significantly improve flood forecasting accuracy, especially in the long forecast horizon. The advent of deep learning techniques has shown promising improvement in flood forecasting accuracy which are crucial for operating reservoir and mitigating flood damages. However, the practical application of typical deep learning models, such as the Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM), is hindered by their high complexity, computational cost, and lack of interpretability. This study introduces an Explainable Convolutional Neural Network (ECNN) model that can effectively capture inter-variable relationships and temporal dynamics to address these challenges. The proposed ECNN model was applied to the Lushui basin in China and compared with benchmark models. The interpretability of the ECNN model was analyzed using the Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) method. Our findings demonstrated that the ECNN model exhibits exceptional performance in flood forecast tasks, particularly for long-term forecast horizons. Furthermore, precipitation and inflow play a decisive role in flood forecasting with the watershed-specific flood characteristics. The ECNN model is highly promising in real-time flood forecasting with ingenious parallel structure, remarkable accuracy, and interpretability.