A Physics-of-Failure (PoF) model-based Dynamic Bayesian Network for considering the aging of safety barriers in the risk assessment of industrial facilities

Abstract

In this work, a novel Physics-of-Failure (PoF) model-based framework is proposed for accounting for the aging of safety barriers in the risk assessment of industrial facilities. A PoF model of aging is integrated into the barriers fragility models to provide fragility surfaces as functions of both the hazard magnitude and the barrier age. Such modelling is integrated in a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) for the risk assessment. The proposed framework is applied to a case study of a chemical facility exposed to Natural hazard-induced Technological (NaTech) risk due to earthquakes. The results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the framework.