The potential habitat of Angelica dahurica in China under climate change scenario predicted by Maxent model

Abstract

Since the 20th century, global climate has been recognized as the most important environmental factor affecting the distribution of plants. <i>Angelica dahurica</i> (<i>A. dahurica</i>) has been in great demand as a medicinal herb and flavoring, but the lack of seed sources has hindered its development. In this study, we utilized the Maxent model combined with Geographic Information System (GIS) to predict the potential habitat of <i>A. dahurica</i> in China based on its geographical distribution and 22 environmental factors. This prediction will serve as a valuable reference for the utilization and conservation of <i>A. dahurica</i> resources.The results indicated that: (1) the Maxent model exhibited high accuracy in predicting the potential habitat area of <i>A. dahurica</i>, with a mean value of the area under the ROC curve (AUC) at 0.879 and a TSS value above 0.6; (2) The five environmental variables with significant effects were bio6 (Min temperature of the coldest month), bio12 (Annual Precipitation), bio17 (Precipitation of Driest Quarter), elevation, and slope, contributing to a cumulative total of 89.6%. Suitable habitats for <i>A. dahurica</i> were identified in provinces such as Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Sichuan, Hunan, and others. The total area of suitable habitat was projected to increase, with expansion primarily in middle and high latitudes, while areas of decrease were concentrated in lower latitudes. Under future climate change scenarios, the centers of mass of suitable areas for <i>A. dahurica</i> were predicted to shift towards higher latitudes in the 2050s and 2090s, particularly towards the North China Plain and Northeast Plain. Overall, it holds great significance to utilize the Maxent model to predict the development and utilization of <i>A. dahurica</i> germplasm resources in the context of climate change.