Large-scale flood modeling and forecasting with FloodCast

Abstract

Large-scale hydrodynamic models generally rely on fixed-resolution spatial grids and model parameters as well as incurring a high computational cost. This limits their ability to accurately forecast flood crests and issue time-critical hazard warnings. In this work, we build a fast, stable, accurate, resolution-invariant, and geometry-adaptive flood modeling and forecasting framework that can perform at large scales, namely FloodCast. The framework comprises two main modules: multi-satellite observation and hydrodynamic modeling. In the multi-satellite observation module, a real-time unsupervised change detection method and a rainfall processing and analysis tool are proposed to harness the full potential of multi-satellite observations in large-scale flood prediction. In the hydrodynamic modeling module, a geometry-adaptive physics-informed neural solver (GeoPINS) is introduced, benefiting from the absence of a requirement for training data in physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) and featuring a fast, accurate, and resolution-invariant architecture with Fourier neural operators. To adapt to complex river geometries, we reformulate PINNs in a geometry-adaptive space. GeoPINS demonstrates impressive performance on popular partial differential equations across regular and irregular domains. Building upon GeoPINS, we propose a sequence-to-sequence GeoPINS model to handle long-term temporal series and extensive spatial domains in large-scale flood modeling. This model employs sequence-to-sequence learning and hard-encoding of boundary conditions. Next, we establish a benchmark dataset in the 2022 Pakistan flood using a widely accepted finite difference numerical solution to assess various flood simulation methods. Finally, we validate the model in three dimensions - flood inundation range, depth, and transferability of spatiotemporal downscaling - utilizing SAR-based flood data, traditional hydrodynamic benchmarks, and concurrent optical remote sensing images. Traditional hydrodynamics and sequence-to-sequence GeoPINS exhibit exceptional agreement during high water levels, while comparative assessments with SAR-based flood depth data show that sequence-to-sequence GeoPINS outperforms traditional hydrodynamics, with smaller simulation errors. The experimental results for the 2022 Pakistan flood demonstrate that the proposed method enables high-precision, large-scale flood modeling with an average MAPE of 14.93 % and an average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.0610 m for 14-day water depth simulations while facilitating real-time flood hazard forecasting using reliable precipitation data.