Supply scale, carbon footprint, and levelized cost assessment of hydrogen production technologies during carbon neutrality transition in China

Abstract

The unclear developmental potential of hydrogen production technologies in China hinders policy formulation and industrial planning. This study explores the evolution of nine hydrogen production pathways in China from 2020 to 2060, using a dynamic integrated assessment model. The results project a significant increase in hydrogen supply from 29.69 Mt in 2020 to 86.34 Mt by 2060, primarily green hydrogen post-2042, with an 83 % reduction in average carbon footprint during the forty years. The levelized cost when not considering carbon prices is projected to peak in 2033. The findings suggest a phased transition strategy, carbon pricing, and increased investments to promote a cost-effective, low-carbon hydrogen economy in China. This study provides a multi-dimensional perspective on China's long-term hydrogen industry development, offering insights for policymaking.