Natural Products Have Increased Rates of Clinical Trial Success throughout the Drug Development Process

Abstract

Natural products (NPs) or their derivatives represent a large proportion of drugs that successfully progress through clinical trials to approval. This study explores the presence of NPs in both early- and late-stage drug discovery to determine their success rate, and the factors or features of natural products that contribute to such success. As a proxy for early drug development stages, we analyzed patent applications over several decades, finding a consistent proportion of NP, NP-derived, and synthetic-compound-based patent documents, with the latter group outnumbering NP and NP-derived ones (approximately 77% vs 23%). We next assessed clinical trial data, where we observed a steady increase in NP and NP-derived compounds from clinical trial phases I to III (from approximately 35% in phase I to 45% in phase III), with an inverse trend observed in synthetics (from approximately 65% in phase I to 55% in phase III). Finally, <i>in vitro</i> and <i>in silico</i> toxicity studies revealed that NPs and their derivatives were less toxic alternatives to their synthetic counterparts. These discoveries offer valuable insights for successful NP-based drug development, highlighting the potential benefits of prioritizing NPs and their derivatives as starting points.