Levelized cost of hydrogen production in Northern Africa and Europe in 2050: A Monte Carlo simulation for Germany, Norway, Spain, Algeria, Morocco, and Egypt

Abstract

The production of green hydrogen through electrolysis, utilizing renewable energies, is recognized as a pivotal element in the pursuit of decarbonization. In order to attain cost competitiveness for green hydrogen, reasonable generation costs are imperative. To identify cost-effective import partners for Germany, given its limited green hydrogen production capabilities, this study undertakes an exhaustive techno-economic analysis to determine the potential Levelized Cost of Hydrogen in Germany, Norway, Spain, Algeria, Morocco, and Egypt for the year 2050, which represents a critical milestone in European decarbonization efforts. Employing a stochastic approach with Monte Carlo simulations, the paper marks a significant contribution for projecting future cost ranges, acknowledging the multitude of uncertainties inherent in related cost parameters and emphasizing the importance of randomness in these assessments. Country-specific Weighted Average Cost of Capital are calculated in order to create a refined understanding of political and economic influences on cost formation, rather than using a uniform value across all investigated nations. Key findings reveal that among the evaluated nations, PV-based hydrogen emerges as the most cost-efficient alternative in all countries except Norway, with Spain presenting the lowest Levelized Cost of Hydrogen at 1.66 €/kg to 3.12 €/kg, followed by Algeria (1.72 €/kg to 3.23 €/kg) and Morocco (1.73 €/kg to 3.28 €/kg). Consequently, for economically favorable import options, Germany is advised to prioritize PV-based hydrogen imports from these countries. Additionally, hydrogen derived from onshore wind in Norway (2.24 €/kg to 3.73 €/kg) offers a feasible import alternative. To ensure supply chain diversity and reduce dependency on a single source, a mixed import strategy is advisable. Despite having the lowest electricity cost, Egypt shows the highest Levelized Cost of Hydrogen, primarily due to a significant Weighted Average Cost of Capital.