Do population-related factors matter for carbon emissions? Lessons from different income groups of countries

Abstract

In an era of rising global population and urbanisation, understanding demographic shifts and CO 2 emissions dynamics has become crucial for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 13. This study employs robust econometric procedures to investigate population-related factors influencing CO 2 emissions across countries with varying income levels from 1993Q1 to 2018Q4. Our empirical findings reveal several vital insights. First, urbanisation positively impacts CO 2 emissions across income groups. Second, unemployment tends to decrease CO 2 emissions in most income groups, except for lower-income countries, with negligible effect. Besides, an ageing population drives CO 2 emissions in upper-middle and lower-middle-income nations but constrains emissions in high-income countries. Population density impedes CO 2 emissions in high and lower-middle-income countries but enhances them in lower-income nations. Life expectancy negatively influences CO 2 emissions in high and upper-middle-income countries but positively affects emissions in lower-middle-income nations. Finally, causality tests reveal bidirectional relationships between CO 2 emissions and determining factors such as population density, ageing population, urbanisation, life expectancy, and per capita GDP. Our findings highlight that policies promoting global ecological balance through CO 2 emissions reduction should account for rising population-related factors. • This study examines population-related factors affecting CO2 emissions across income groups. • Urbanisation positively influences CO2 emissions across income groups. • Unemployment decreases CO2 emissions, except in lower-income countries. • Ageing population drives CO2 emissions in middle-income countries. • Population density varies in its influence on CO2 emissions across income groups.