Spatio-temporal analysis of the driving factors of urban land use expansion in China: A study of the Yangtze River Delta region

Abstract

Abstract Urban land use dynamics play a key role in the sustainable development of rapidly urbanizing regions, such as the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in China. In this study, we employed geospatial and statistical methods comprising remotely sensed data, Geographic Information Systems, and the Spatial Durbin model to examine the complex changes in urban land uses. These techniques allowed for a broader assessment of the evolving urban landscape, emphasizing the significance of considering spatial relationships and socioeconomic panel data in the study area. The result indicated a substantial increase in built-up land within the YRD, rising from 6.83% in 2000 to 12.29% in 2020. This growth predominantly occurred at the expense of agricultural land, forests, and water bodies, with agricultural areas contributing over 90.2% to the built-up land expansion. The eastern cities experienced a more noticeable urban expansion compared to the western cities. The findings revealed a positive spatial spillover effect among neighboring cities, indicating a significant spatial clustering of built-up land. Population and urbanization emerged as primary drivers influencing both local and neighboring built-up land expansions. However, economic development, fixed asset investment, and transportation networks influenced the local areas of the YRD region but acted as inhibitors for the growth of neighboring areas. The result also suggests that industrial structures effectively curb local built-up land expansion without adversely affecting neighboring areas. These findings contribute to the existing knowledge by providing a wider understanding of land uses within the YRD region and valuable policy recommendations for sustainable urban planning in similar rapidly urbanizing areas.