Identification of typical district configurations: A two-step global sensitivity analysis framework

Abstract

The recent geopolitical conflicts in Europe have underscored the vulnerability of the current energy system to the volatility of energy carrier prices. In the prospect of defining robust energy systems ensuring sustainable energy supply in the future, the imperative of leveraging renewable indigenous energy sources becomes evident. However, as such technologies are integrated into the existing system, it is necessary to shift from the current centralized infrastructure to a decentralized production strategy. This paper presents a method to identify a panel of technological solutions at the district level, intended to reduce complexity for the integration of decentralized models into a national-scale model. The framework’s novelty lies in combining a global sensitivity analysis for solution generation with clustering to identify typical configurations. The global sensitivity analysis is performed on a mixed integer linear programming model, which optimally sizes and operates district energy systems. The sensitivity analysis determines the most influential parameters of the model using the Morris method and provides a representative sampling of the solution space by leveraging the Sobol sampling strategy. The latter is then clustered using a density-based algorithm to identify typical solutions. The framework is applied to a suburban and residential Swiss neighborhood. The first outcome of the research is the high sensitivity of the model to energy carrier prices. As a result, Sobol’s sampling space separates itself into two system types: those based on a natural gas boiler and those relying on a combination of electrical heaters and heat pumps. For both types, the electricity demand is either fulfilled by PV panels or electricity imports. The identified configurations showcase that the framework successfully generates a panel of solutions composed of various system configurations and operations being representative of the overall solution space.