Modeling future land use and land cover under different scenarios using patch-generating land use simulation model. A case study of Ndola district

Abstract

Accurate predictions of changes in Land-use and Land-cover (LULC) are crucial in climate modeling, providing valuable insights into the possible effects of land-use alterations on Earth’s intricate system. This study focuses on forecasting and examining future LULC changes in the Ndola district from 2022 to 2042, considering three scenarios: Traditional mode (TM), Ecological protection (EP), and Economic Development (ED). TM reflects past land use changes, EP prioritizes environmental conservation, and ED emphasizes economic growth and urbanization. Using the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, we achieved precise predictions of LULC changes in Ndola district. The model, which combines LEAS rule-extraction with a CA model using CARS, addresses limitations of previous models like CLUE-S, CA-Markov, and FLUS by accurately simulating scattered LULC patterns and the mutual attraction and evolution of open space and urban land under different policies. Using LULC data from the livingatlas platform for the base period (2017–2022), the model demonstrated a Kappa coefficient of 78% and a FoM value of 0.34. Key findings indicate significant trends, such as reductions in forest and agricultural lands in the TM and ED scenarios, with rangeland expanding consistently across all scenarios, particularly in the ED scenario. The decline in agricultural and forest lands raises concerns about household food security, habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss, and diminished ecosystem services. Urban sprawl onto other land uses could further strain urban infrastructure and public services. Future research should incorporate uncertainty analysis methods such as fuzzy logic or Bayesian methodologies to quantify and differentiate uncertainties related to modeling simulations.