Exploring the interdependence of climate, finance, energy, and geopolitics: A conceptual framework for systemic risks amidst multiple crises

Abstract

Navigating the transition toward a zero-emission and just future amidst multiple crises requires a nuanced understanding of potential hindrances to investments and energy transitions. As current approaches hardly consider the big picture of interacting crises, this study offers a framework to analyze the dynamics and risk channels between 1) the climate crisis, 2) financial (in)stability, 3) the geopolitical energy crisis, and 4) the energy transitions. Our framework reveals that the dynamics depends on the specific emergency policy. Hence, we apply the framework to a German Case study. Our findings reveal that fossil energy security policies and insufficient macroprudential policies can threaten the energy transition and financial stability exacerbating negative feedback loops. The discussion highlights that short-term emergency policies outweighing long-term climate goals fail to secure financial stability, reduce transition risks, or accelerate the energy transition. In conclusion, crises can catalyse the transition if short-term emergency policies are harmonized with long-term climate goals advocating for a coherent policy framework.