Climatic drivers of the Canadian wildfire episode in 2023

Abstract

Extreme wildfires broke out in Canada from May 2023 and persisted four months. Tremendous fire emissions posed significant impacts on the air quality in both local and downwind regions. Here, we explored the meteorological factors driving this wildfire episode and the associated large-scale circulation. Relative to the mean value of 2001–2022, the 2023 Canadian fires released 0.37 Gt more CO2 (527.1%) during May–August. Such enhancement was strongly associated with the anomalous surface warming, especially in May–June, when the daily maximum temperature on average increased by 8.11°C, with regional hotspots up to 10°C in central and eastern Canada. Consistent with the surface warming, positive anomalies of geopotential height were observed at high levels in central and western Canada. The dispersion of Rossby waves led to the long-lasting dominance of high-pressure systems and the consequent warming through anomalous subsidence. The phase-locked wave pattern induced by favorable topography and the strong warming tendency in the pan-Arctic regions are expected to jointly escalate the probability of extreme wildfires over central and western Canada in the future.