Climatic Constraints of Spring Phenology and Its Variability on the Mongolian Plateau From 1982 to 2021

Abstract

Abstract The start of vegetation growing season (SOS) plays an important role in the energy cycle between the land and atmosphere. Due to the limited temporal span of a single satellite sensor through time, the continuous variation of the SOS over 40 years has not been adequately quantified. Using the overlapping periods (2001–2015) between the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) (1982–2015) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (2001–2021) data sets, we construct an NDVI data set covering the period 1982–2021 on the Mongolian Plateau and further construct a map of relative climatic constraint on the SOS (divided into “temperature‐constrained,” “precipitation‐constrained,” and “other” regions) for quantifying SOS variability. We show that the constructed NDVI data set has high consistency and continuity with earlier GIMMS NDVI data. Regions with the SOS constrained by temperature account for 55.3% of the plateau and are located in northwestern and northeastern cold areas, while regions with the SOS constrained by precipitation constitute over 34.7% and are located in central and southwestern drier regions. Importantly, the temperature‐constrained SOS has continuously and significantly advanced, with a total advance of 4.8 days over 40 years. In contrast, the precipitation‐constrained SOS reversed from advancing to delaying in 2005. This suggests that differentiating the climatic constraint on the SOS might be a practical treatment for reducing the uncertainties in the SOS trends in previous studies. Interestingly, the precipitation‐constrained SOS does not significantly correlate to both the chilling and forcing temperatures, indicating less dependency of the SOS on chilling, which may not have been well considered previously.