Extrapolative prediction of small-data molecular property using quantum mechanics-assisted machine learning

Abstract

Abstract Data-driven materials science has realized a new paradigm by integrating materials domain knowledge and machine-learning (ML) techniques. However, ML-based research has often overlooked the inherent limitation in predicting unknown data: extrapolative performance, especially when dealing with small-scale experimental datasets. Here, we present a comprehensive benchmark for assessing extrapolative performance across 12 organic molecular properties. Our large-scale benchmark reveals that conventional ML models exhibit remarkable performance degradation beyond the training distribution of property range and molecular structures, particularly for small-data properties. To address this challenge, we introduce a quantum-mechanical (QM) descriptor dataset, called QMex, and an interactive linear regression (ILR), which incorporates interaction terms between QM descriptors and categorical information pertaining to molecular structures. The QMex-based ILR achieved state-of-the-art extrapolative performance while preserving its interpretability. Our benchmark results, QMex dataset, and proposed model serve as valuable assets for improving extrapolative predictions with small experimental datasets and for the discovery of novel materials/molecules that surpass existing candidates.