National and Local Direct Medical Cost Burden of COPD in the United States From 2016 to 2019 and Projections Through 2029

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Despite the significant burden posed by COPD to health care systems, there is a lack of up-to-date information quantifying the general COPD burden, costs, and long-term projections to various stakeholders in the United States. RESEARCH QUESTION: What are the updated state-specific and nationwide estimates of the COPD disease burden and direct costs in 2019, along with projections of COPD-attributable medical costs through 2029? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A cross-sectional, retrospective study design using the 2016 to 2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 2019 American Community Survey, and 2019 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data was applied to generate COPD-attributable expenditure estimates. Cost projections for the years 2020 to 2029 were based on 2017 national population projections reported by the US Census Bureau, and all costs were adjusted to 2019 US dollars. RESULTS: In total, 4,135 people living with COPD were included; a higher proportion had other concurrent conditions such as cardiovascular-related conditions compared with people without COPD (n = 86,021). Overall, in 2019, COPD-attributable medical costs after adjusting for demographic characteristics and 19 concurrent conditions (including COPD-related and non-COPD-related conditions) were estimated at $31.3 billion, with state-specific cost estimates reporting wide variation, from $44.8 million in Alaska to $3.1 billion in Florida. Nationwide COPD-attributable medical costs borne by payer type were as follows: private insurance, $11.4 billion; Medicare, $10.8 billion; and Medicaid, $3.0 billion. Projections of national medical costs attributable to COPD are reported to increase to $60.5 billion in 2029. INTERPRETATION: Understanding the current disease and economic burden of COPD in the United States, along with the projected costs attributable to COPD in the next decade, will highlight unmet needs and gaps in care that help inform health care decision-makers in planning future actions to alleviate this disease burden.