A representative CO2 emissions pathway for China toward carbon neutrality under the Paris Agreement's 2 °C target

Abstract

In 2021, China updated its nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, which prompts a more accurate measurement of its emissions inventory and a reasonable pathway toward carbon neutrality before 2060. This study reviews the estimates using the bottom-up emissions factor method or the top-down atmospheric CO2 concentration inversion method to derive China’s CO2 emissions inventory and finds thatCO2 emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes in Chinese mainland range from 11.3‒12.0 GtCO2. Based on a comprehensive review of pathways proposed by domestic and international studies and an analysis of the origins of their differences, we proposed the Tsinghua-CMA pathway that coordinates the global temperature rise control target with China’s currentCO2 emissions status and mitigation policies. The pathway is consistent with the 2 °C target and requires China’s CO2 emissions to peak around 2028–2029 at about 12.8 GtCO2, then decline steadily to 11.2 GtCO2 in 2035, 3.6 GtCO2 in 2050, and 0.9 GtCO2 in 2060. Compared to a reference scenario without updated NDCs, this pathway would result in an economic cost of about 0.9% cumulative GDP between 2020 and 2060, only 1/4‒1/3 of the cost associated with pathways that align with the 1.5°C target. We recommended that China improves emissions accounting by cross-validating bottom-up and top-down approaches and regularly updating the pathway toward carbon neutrality while maintaining consistency with its evolving CO2 emissions inventory, policy trends, and global CO2 emission budget updates.