Projection of climate change impacts on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Poland

Abstract

Climate change is exacerbating the risk of the occurrence of extreme weather. This study has projected the change in mean and extreme climate conditions in Central Poland during near-future (2026-2050), mid-term (2051-2075), and far-future (2076-2100) periods under two climate-change scenarios in six General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results showed that, compared to the historical reference period (1990-2014), Central Poland will experience an increase in temperature and precipitation by the end of the twenty-first century. It is expected that the mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation totals will increase by 1-4.8 °C and 2-7.5%, respectively. Furthermore, it is projected that the average number of hot, very hot days and extremely hot days (Tmax > 25 °C, > 30 °C, and > 35 °C), tropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C), and extremely high daily precipitation (> 10 mm, > 20 mm and > 30 mm) will also increase, while the average number of slight frost days (Tmin < 0 °C), and frost and severe frost days (Tmax < 0 °C, Tmax < - 10 °C) will decline on average by the end of the twenty-first century. Therefore, it is essential for policymakers to take some appropriate measurements and strategies in advance to strengthen resilience to extreme climate events.