Arctic marginal ice zone interannual variability and change point detection using two definitions (1983–2022)

Abstract

Abstract The ongoing decline in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness underscores the scientific significance of monitoring the marginal ice zone (MIZ), a transitional region between the open ocean and pack ice. In this study, we used Bootstrap sea ice concentration (SIC) to detect the trend and change point of the Arctic MIZ over 40 years (1983–2022) using two different MIZ definitions: SIC threshold-based (MIZ t ) and SIC anomaly-based (MIZ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi> </mml:mi> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>σ</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:math> ). This study marks the exploration of a SIC anomaly-based definition of the MIZ over the Arctic. While the two MIZ definitions yield comparable seasonal trends in marginal ice zone fraction (MIZF), the MIZ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi/> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>σ</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:math> fraction values peak during the transition periods (e.g. freeze-up and break-up), while the MIZ t fraction values peak in August. The analysis also uncovers consistently higher MIZF values for the MIZ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi/> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>σ</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:math> than for MIZ t across all seasons. Moreover, October and August show the fastest rate of increase in MIZ t fraction and MIZ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi/> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>σ</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:math> fraction, reflecting the coinciding rapid decrease in sea ice extent during those particular months. Employing the pruned exact linear time, a multiple change point detection method, highlights a significant increase in the MIZ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mi/> <mml:mi>t</mml:mi> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> fraction in October (after 2005) and MIZ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mi/> <mml:mi>σ</mml:mi> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> fraction in August (after 2007). This can be indicative of the recent climate change impacts in the Arctic region that may be linked with shifts in SIC and sea ice mobility for MIZ t and MIZ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi> </mml:mi> <mml:mi>σ</mml:mi> </mml:msub> </mml:math> , respectively.