Projecting Diversity Conflicts of Future Land System Pathways in China Under Anthropogenic and Climate Forcing

Abstract

Abstract Predicting future land system changes driven by anthropogenic and climactic impacts can help to explore adaptation and mitigation pathways for regional and global sustainable development. Here, we project land cover changes in China from 2030 to 2100 at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km under eight scenarios based on the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenraioMIP), which are extracted from Land Use Harmonization version 2 (LUH2). We use a rule‐based method to classify and map 9 land cover dynamic trajectories at patch scale to present land system changes. At the provincial scale we used hierarchical clustering to identify archetypes of land cover change, which can predict ecological risks for future management in western provinces. Our results reveal that anthropogenic mitigation policies under high mitigation pressure do not result in positive impacts on the land system, but rising temperatures will provide a great opportunity for ecological restoration in some regions.