Establishment and evaluation of a risk prediction model for gestational diabetes mellitus

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a condition characterized by high blood sugar levels during pregnancy. The prevalence of GDM is on the rise globally, and this trend is particularly evident in China, which has emerged as a significant issue impacting the well-being of expectant mothers and their fetuses. Identifying and addressing GDM in a timely manner is crucial for maintaining the health of both expectant mothers and their developing fetuses. Therefore, this study aims to establish a risk prediction model for GDM and explore the effects of serum ferritin, blood glucose, and body mass index (BMI) on the occurrence of GDM. AIM: To develop a risk prediction model to analyze factors leading to GDM, and evaluate its efficiency for early prevention. METHODS: The clinical data of 406 pregnant women who underwent routine prenatal examination in Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital from April 2020 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. According to whether GDM occurred, they were divided into two groups to analyze the related factors affecting GDM. Then, according to the weight of the relevant risk factors, the training set and the verification set were divided at a ratio of 7:3. Subsequently, a risk prediction model was established using logistic regression and random forest models, and the model was evaluated and verified. RESULTS: < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The random forest model is superior to the nomogram model in predicting the risk of GDM. This method is helpful for early diagnosis and appropriate intervention of GDM.