Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Vehicle Load Using Time Series, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Techniques

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) are inducing revolutionary developments to the transportation and power sectors. Their innumerable benefits are forcing nations to adopt this sustainable mode of transport. Governments are framing and implementing various green energy policies. Nonetheless, there exist several critical challenges and concerns to be resolved in order to reap the complete benefits of E-mobility. The impacts of unplanned EV charging are a major concern. Accurate EV load forecasting followed by an efficient charge scheduling system could, to a large extent, solve this problem. This work focuses on short-term EV demand forecasting using three learning frameworks, which were applied to real-time adaptive charging network (ACN) data, and performance was analyzed. Auto-regressive (AR) forecasting, support vector regression (SVR), and long short-term memory (LSTM) frameworks demonstrated good performance in EV charging demand forecasting. Among these, LSTM showed the best performance with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4 kW and a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of 5.9 kW.