IMF Working Paper · 2023 · 150 citations · 16 references
Public AffairsEconomicsEnvironmental PolicyAir PollutionClimate PolicyEnvironmental EconomicsCarbon MarketsCarbon PricingClimate FinanceCoal EconomicsEnergy SubsidiesFossil Fuel PolicyAir Pollution AbatementCarbon DioxideCarbon Dioxide EmissionsEnergy Price ReformEnvironmental CostsExplicit SubsidiesFossil Fuel TaxationGreenhouse Gas Mitigation Costs
This paper provides a comprehensive global, regional, and country-level update of: (i) efficient fossil fuel prices to reflect supply and environmental costs; and (ii) subsidies implied by charging below efficient fuel prices. Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $7 trillion in 2022 or 7.1 percent of GDP. Explicit subsidies (undercharging for supply costs) have more than doubled since 2020 but are still only 18 percent of the total subsidy, while nearly 60 percent is due to undercharging for global warming and local air pollution. Differences between efficient prices and retail fuel prices remain large and pervasive. For example, 80 percent of global coal consumption was priced at below half of its efficient level in 2022. Full fossil fuel price reform would reduce global carbon dioxide emissions to an estimated 43 percent below baseline levels in 2030 (in line with keeping global warming to 1.5-2 o C), raise revenues worth 3.6 percent of global GDP, and prevent 1.6 million local air pollution deaths per year. Accompanying spreadsheets provide detailed results for 170 countries.
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Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2
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