1e:T52e,ABSTRACT Modelling strategies for predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the natural distribution of species have often focused on the characterization of a species’ bioclimate envelope. A number of recent critiques have questioned the validity of this approach by pointing to the many factors other than climate that play an important part in determining species distributions and the dynamics of distribution changes. Such factors include biotic interactions, evolutionary change and dispersal ability. This paper reviews and evaluates criticisms of bioclimate envelope models and discusses the implications of these criticisms for the different modelling strategies employed. It is proposed that, although the complexity of the natural system presents fundamental limits to predictive modelling, the bioclimate envelope approach can provide a useful first approximation as to the potentially dramatic impact of climate change on biodiversity. However, it is stressed that the spatial scale at which these models are applied is of fundamental importance, and that model results should not be interpreted without due consideration of the limitations involved. A hierarchical modelling framework is proposed through which some of these limitations can be addressed within a broader, scale‐dependent context.1f:T50b,Boreal and subarctic peatlands comprise a carbon pool of 455 Pg that has accumulated during the postglacial period at an average net rate of 0.096 Pg/yr (1 Pg = 10¹⁵ g). Using Clymo's (1984) model, the current rate is estimated at 0.076 Pg/yr. Longterm drainage of these peatlands is estimated to be causing the oxidation to CO₂ of a little more than 0.0085 Pg/yr, with conbustion of fuel peat adding °0.026 Pg/yr. Emissions of CH₄ are estimated to release ° 0.046 Pg of carbon annually. Uncertainties beset estimates of both stocks and fluxes, particularly with regard to Soviet peatlands. The influence of water table alterations upon fluxes of both CO₂ and CH₄ is in great need of investigation over a wide range of peatland environments, especially in regions where permafrost melting, thermokarst erosion, and the development of thaw lakes are likely results of climatic warming. The role of fire in the carbon cycle of peatlands also deserves increased attention. Finally, satellite-monitoring of the abundance of open water in the peatlands of the West Siberian Plain and the Hudson/James Bay Lowland is suggested as a likely method of detecting early effects of climatic warming upon boreal and subarctic peatlands.20:T8f6,

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