Regional assessment of extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast

Abstract

Abstract. Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to endure considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Consequently, there is a growing demand for flood risk assessments, particularly at regional scales, which will improve the understanding of the impacts of SLR and assist adaptation planning. Existing studies on coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast either use state-of-the-art hydrodynamic models but cover only a small fraction of the study region or assess potential flood extents for the entire region but rely on global topographic data sources and apply the simplified bathtub approach. In addition, the validation of produced flood extents is often not provided. Here we apply a fully validated hydrodynamic modelling framework covering the German Baltic Sea coast that includes the height of natural and anthropogenic coastal protection structures in the study region. Using this modelling framework, we extrapolate spatially explicit 200-year return water levels, which align with the design standard of state embankments in the region, and simulate associated coastal flooding. Specifically, we explore (1) how flood extents may change until 2100 if dike heights are not upgraded, by applying two high-end SLR scenarios (1 and 1.5 m); (2) hotspots of coastal flooding; and (3) the use of SAR imagery for validating the simulated flood extents. Our results confirm that the German Baltic coast is exposed to coastal flooding, with flood extent varying between 217 and 1016 km2 for the 200-year event and a 200-year event with 1.5 m SLR, respectively. Most of the flooding occurs in the federal state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while extreme water levels are generally higher in Schleswig-Holstein. Our results emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection schemes along the German Baltic Sea coast over the 21st century in order to prevent large-scale damage in the future.