Statistical analysis of extreme and record-breaking daily maximum temperatures in peninsular Spain during 1960–2021

Abstract

This work analyses the effects of global warming in the upper extremes of daily temperature series over Spain. This objective implies specific analysis, since time evolution of mean temperature is not always parallel to evolution of the extremes. We propose the use of several record tests to study the behavior of the extreme and record-breaking events in different temperature signals, at different time and spatial scales. The underlying idea of the tests is to compare the occurrence of the extreme events in the observed series and the occurrence in a stationary climate. Given that under global warming, an increasing trend, or an increasing variability, can be expected, the alternative is that the probability of the extremes is higher than in a stationary climate. Some of the tests, based on a permutation approach, can be applied to sets of correlated series and this allows the analysis of short periods of time and regional analysis, where series are measured in close days and/or locations. Using these tests, we evaluate and compare the effects of climate change in temperature extreme and record-breaking events using 36 series of daily maximum temperature from 1960 to 2021, all over peninsular Spain. We also compare the behavior in different Spanish regions, in different periods of the year, and in different signals such as the annual maximum temperature. Significant evidences of the effect of an increasing trend in the occurrence of upper extremes are found in most of Spain. The effects are heterogeneous within the year, being autumn the season where the effects are weaker and summer where they are stronger. Concerning the spatial variability, the Mediterranean and the North Atlantic region are the areas where the effects are more and less clear, respectively.