Examining the effects of beer excise taxation on cross-border sales in border regions of the Baltic States

Abstract

Cross-border alcohol shopping threatens health outcomes and tax revenue, yet offers potential jobs and investment for the Baltic border regions. Exploiting the COVID-19-induced border closures in 2020 with an event study, and several large tax changes using differences-in-differences, this paper measures beer purchases in border regions of the Baltic States. Using monthly data from the Carlsberg group, beer sales in lower tax border regions dropped sharply during the COVID-19 closures, while sales increased modestly in higher tax border areas. Evidence from tax changes in Lithuania and Estonia also suggests dramatic effects on sales in lower tax Latvian border districts.