Dynamic linkages between trade, growth, inequality, and poverty in emerging countries: An application of panel ARDL approach

Abstract

With the transition from Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the concept of development has shifted from development to inclusive development. This motivates authors to include not only growth and inequality but also poverty, which will represent our concept of inclusive development. The literature on trade and its impact on inequality and poverty is ambiguous and heterogeneous, reflecting the need for more empirical analyses to enable effective policy targeting and implementation. The study examines the dynamic linkages between trade and the GIP triangle (economic growth, poverty, and inequality) in 18 emerging countries from 1991 to 2020. As a contribution to the existing literature, the study emphasizes direct and indirect linkages between trade and the GIP triangle. Using the panel ARDL approach for panel data, the study finds that trade promotes growth. Trade also helps in deteriorating income inequality, while it is not a factor of poverty eradication in emerging economies. The study recommends that to maximize the effectiveness of trade policies; they must be complementary and implemented in tandem with trade reforms.