Future scenarios of the Baltic power system with large penetration of renewables

Abstract

We model a hypothetical future scenario of the Baltic power system in 2050 with renewables-dominated generation, significantly increased electricity demand and synchronous operation with Continental Europe grid. A number of scenarios and sensitivities are assessed in terms of technical indicators such as renewable energy and demand curtailment, peaker power plant utilization as well as economic indicators like the electricity market price dynamics. We find that a future Baltic power system with a major share of renewables is viable both from the technical and economic perspective. It is shown that the flexibility already inherent in the Baltic power system can be successfully utilized for integrating significant capacities of renewables with relatively minor needs for additional flexibility.