Long-term SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in wastewater and estimation of COVID-19 cases: An application of wastewater-based epidemiology

Abstract

The role of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE), a powerful tool to complement clinical surveillance, has increased as many grassroots-level facilities, such as municipalities and cities, are actively involved in wastewater monitoring, and the clinical testing of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is downscaled widely. This study aimed to conduct long-term wastewater surveillance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Yamanashi Prefecture, Japan, using one-step reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) assay and estimate COVID-19 cases using a cubic regression model that is simple to implement. Influent wastewater samples (n = 132) from a wastewater treatment plant were collected normally once weekly between September 2020 and January 2022 and twice weekly between February and August 2022. Viruses in wastewater samples (40 mL) were concentrated by the polyethylene glycol precipitation method, followed by RNA extraction and RT-qPCR. The K-6-fold cross-validation method was used to select the appropriate data type (SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration and COVID-19 cases) suitable for the final model run. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was successfully detected in 67 % (88 of 132) of the samples tested during the whole surveillance period, 37 % (24 of 65) and 96 % (64 of 67) of the samples collected before and during 2022, respectively, with concentrations ranging from 3.5 to 6.3 log₁₀ copies/L. This study applied a nonnormalized SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration and nonstandardized data for running the final 14-day (1 to 14 days) offset models to estimate weekly average COVID-19 cases. Comparing the parameters used for a model evaluation, the best model showed that COVID-19 cases lagged 3 days behind the SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater samples during the Omicron variant phase (year 2022). Finally, 3- and 7-day offset models successfully predicted the trend of COVID-19 cases from September 2022 until February 2023, indicating the applicability of WBE as an early warning tool.