Coupling Effect and Chain Evolution of Urban Rail Transit Emergencies

Abstract

Emergency events such as fire, flood and COVID-19 occurred in urban rail transit (URT) usually triggered chain effect and evolved into huge disaster. This kind of chain with complexity and uncertainty evolution brought great challenges to the safety management of the system. Thus, the coupling effects of emergencies and then its relationship with the chain evolution is necessary to analyze emphatically. A Graph Evaluation and Review Technique Simulation (GERTS) evolution network is firstly constructed to describe the coupling effect and chain evolution of emergencies. Then, considering the internal and external influencing factors of the emergency chain, a dynamic evolution model of the emergency chain based on Coupled Map Lattice (CML) is proposed. This paper takes fire chain of URT as an example to simulate the evolution process of emergency chain, and analyze the impact of different coupling effects and various influencing factors on the evolution of emergency chain. The results of numerical simulation show that the AND-coupling can significantly inhibit the evolution of emergency events, while the OR-coupling and CO-coupling can expand the impact scope of emergency events. In addition, the evolution speed of emergency events can be controlled by increasing the coupling action time and improving the URT repair ability. When an emergency event occurs, the analysis of coupling effect and the accompanied chain evolution will help managers to make scientific judgment on the development trend of the emergency events and make targeted emergency defense measures.