Novel, high accuracy models for hepatocellular carcinoma prediction based on longitudinal data and cell-free DNA signatures

Abstract

In this multicenter nationwide cohort study, we developed and externally validated two novel hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk prediction models (called aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores), using longitudinal discriminant analysis algorithm and longitudinal data (i.e., aMAP and alpha-fetoprotein) with or without the addition of cell-free DNA signatures, based on 13,728 patients from 61 centers across mainland China. Our findings demonstrated that the performance of aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores was markedly better than the original aMAP score, and any other existing HCC risk scores across all subsets, especially for patients with cirrhosis. More importantly, the stepwise application of aMAP scores (aMAP -> aMAP-2 -> aMAP-2 Plus) provides an improved enrichment strategy, identifying patients at high risk of HCC, which could effectively guide individualized HCC surveillance.