Rate of Change in 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Its Implications for Primary Prevention

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Contemporary cardiovascular primary prevention is based on the assessment of the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, the clinical implications of temporal change in the 10-year ASCVD risk estimate (∆10-year ASCVD risk/year) are unknown. METHODS: A total of 211 077 participants without established ASCVD and with repetitive 10-year ASCVD risk assessment at an interval of 4 to 5 years were selected from the Korean National Health Insurance Service data. The primary end point was a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, and all-cause death. RESULTS: ASCVD event rates were proportional to the ∆10-year ASCVD risk/year regardless of the baseline 10-year ASCVD risk. Adjusted hazard ratio for ASCVD events per 1% increase in ∆10-year ASCVD risk/year was 1.53 (95% CI, 1.44-1.63), 1.24 (95% CI, 1.15-1.32), 1.18 (95% CI, 1.13-1.23), and 1.05 (95% CI, 1.00-1.10) in those with a baseline 10-year ASCVD risk of <5%, 5% to 7.5%, 7.5% to 20%, and ≥20%, respectively. Appropriate control of risk factors, including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, blood pressure, body mass index, exercise habits, and smoking status, was associated with lower ASCVD event rates, whereas failure to control these risk factors resulted in higher ASCVD event rates. CONCLUSIONS: The temporal change in 10-year ASCVD risk over a period of 4 to 5 years reflects success or failure in controlling major cardiovascular risk factors and indicates the risk of future ASCVD events. The ∆10-year ASCVD risk/year can be used as an indicator of primary prevention and guide the application of preventive measures.