Experiences of co‐producing sub‐seasonal forecast products for agricultural application in Kenya and Ghana

Abstract

The development and application of new sub-seasonal forecasting products in the agricultural sectors of Ghana and Kenya are described. Using a co-production approach transforms the role of the forecast user from merely a recipient of forecast information to being involved in the forecast product development process. This approach is resource intensive, but it can improve the application of forecasts in decision-making by giving the in-country services the agility to respond to local needs. Sub-seasonal forecasts (1–4 weeks) have potential to aid agricultural planning. Realising this potential requires the co-production of reliable forecast products with agricultural users. The African SWIFT (Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques) project ran a 2-year sub-seasonal forecasting testbed bringing together forecast users, producers and researchers in Africa and the United Kingdom to co-produce bespoke forecasts. Here, agricultural case studies in Ghana and Kenya show having direct access to the sub-seasonal data in real time gave local operational centres the agency to iteratively develop, communicate and visualise the forecast information in an appropriate way to support agricultural decision-making.