Levelized cost estimates of solar photovoltaic electricity in the United Kingdom until 2035

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity represents one of the most promising sources of clean and affordable energy; however, the share of solar power in electricity production remains low, primarily because of the high installation costs. By conducting a large-scale analysis of electricity pricing, we show that solar PV systems are quickly becoming one of the most competitive sources of electricity. Collecting a contemporary UK dataset of 2010-2021, we analyze the historical levelized cost of electricity for several PV system sizes, project until 2035, and conduct a sensitivity analysis. The cost of PV electricity is currently at about 149 ₤/MWh for the smallest-scale and 51 ₤/MWh for large-scale PV systems, already lower than the wholesale price of electricity, with PV systems predicted to get cheaper by 40%-50% until 2035. The government should focus on supporting solar PV system developers with benefits such as simpler land purchases for PV farms or preferential loans with low interest rates.