Deep Learning-Based Rainfall Prediction Using Cloud Image Analysis

Abstract

This study presents a new research direction for predicting rainfall amount using cloud image data. Herein, we employ a convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to develop an image-value model from cloud image data collected from 20 May 2020 to 24 October 2020 using IoT sensors installed at two research locations in Seoul, Republic of Korea. First, we refine the dataset using data preprocessing in three steps: 1. day/night discrimination, 2. ratio adjustment, and 3. image augmentation. Second, we construct a binary classification model using one-hot encoding for the existence of rainfall. This reduces no-rain data instances and increases model performance, thereby enabling the model to extract image features. Finally, we develop a CNN-based image-value model for rainfall prediction with a well-organized model configuration. Rainfall existence results derived from the binary classification model used for model input as preprocessed cloud image data. Proposed rainfall prediction model exhibited 85.59% accuracy on cloud images with an average mean squared error (MSE) of 3.05 for observation data under 3 mm/h. In particular, single application of the function that divides boolean input by the standard deviation of the dataset within each characteristic resulted in a 17% increase in predicted rainfall accuracy. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to train CNN model to predict value (rainfall) with matched image data (cloud), which could be denoted as CNN-based image-value model. Notably, the proposed model can be further extended into other image datasets, including rain streaks with various backgrounds under different climatic conditions.