Comprehensive impact assessment of carbon neutral pathways and air pollution control policies in Shaanxi Province of China

Abstract

Low-carbon policies will have a significant impact on air quality. This study builds an integrated assessment model to systematically assess the impacts of different carbon neutral pathways and air pollution control policies in Shaanxi province. We found that the contribution rate of low-carbon policies to air quality improvement will be greater than end-of-pipe control. Carbon neutral pathways could prevent 5 to 10 thousand premature deaths and bring 5.7 to 10.4 billion USD in environmental health benefits. From the perspective of cost-benefit, low-carbon policies can bring positive benefits of 0.27% of GDP before 2030. Carbon reduction costs will increase rapidly after 2035, and the loss of total social-economic benefits in 2060 is 3.16% to 16.57%. Achieving carbon neutrality means a disruptive technological shift, reducing the policy costs of climate governance by aggressively developing more zero-carbon and negative-carbon technologies.