Energy demand estimation using a pre-processing macro-economic modelling tool for 21st century transition analyses

Abstract

Energy systems research requires a variety of demand scenarios for possible futures. Comprehensive energy demand modelling is often made with a simplified approach or based on assumptions scattered among various sources, if it is published at all. There is no detailed discussion of the impact of various macro-economic scenarios on different levels of energy demand available. This study uses LUT-DEMAND, a novel modelling tool for energy demand, to create comprehensive demand input data in high spatial resolution globally and high temporal resolution until 2100. A multi-step approach is applied to estimate the energy demand. A variety of economic and demographic scenarios are explored, including the shared socio-economic pathways. The total primary energy demand is estimated for possible limitations caused by the overall energy demand and chosen technologies. The results for this century's energy supply for ambitious transition targets are presented, and they show a significant impact of macro-economic assumptions on scale and trajectory on all levels of energy demand. Among the explored scenarios, the total primary energy demand may rise to 399 PWh (1435 EJ) by 2100, with a maximum estimated solar photovoltaic capacity demand of about 200 TWp. LUT-DEMAND and its documentation are available in an open-access online repository.