The budget policy of Ukraine under martial law

Abstract

Large-scale military actions on Ukraine’s territory have led to extraordinary challenges for budget policy. This study aims to evaluate the budget policy of Ukraine and substantiate its strategic priorities in martial law. The paper used economic and statistical methods to assess the ultimate budget indicators. It was determined that budget revenues decreased due to the economic recession, and expenditures, primarily for defense and security, increased. In 2022, compared to 2021 (the full-scale war against Ukraine began on February 24, 2022), tax revenues decreased by 7.6%. In contrast, the study observed an increase in budget expenditures by 65.0%, in the budget deficit by 4.5 times (financed mainly by external borrowings and military bonds bought by the National Bank of Ukraine), and in state and guaranteed state debt by 52.4%. In the context of military operations, the budget policy aims to ensure a balance between financing the most critical items of the budget and stimulating the economy’s recovery. At the same time, the institutional capacity of state authorities allows controlling how a country survives in this challenging period. In order to restore the economy, the Ukrainian government must implement a prudent budget policy, assess fiscal risks associated with changes in the macroeconomic environment, and increase the efficiency of budget expenditures.