The Ukraine war and rising commodity prices: Implications for developing countries

TLDR

The Russia‑Ukraine war has sharply increased food, fuel, and fertilizer prices, raising global poverty and food insecurity, yet quantitative studies on its effects in developing countries are scarce. The authors aim to quantify the crisis’s near‑term impacts on agrifood systems, poverty, and food insecurity in 19 developing countries. They employ national economy‑wide models to measure these effects, linking price shocks to socioeconomic outcomes across the selected countries. The results show that the war pushed 27.2 million more people into poverty and 22.3 million into hunger, with agrifood systems and poverty most vulnerable to fuel and fertilizer price rises, while hunger and diet quality are driven primarily by higher food prices.

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine war's impact on food, fuel, and fertilizer prices is a major concern for global poverty and food insecurity. Despite numerous studies and editorials on the risks and challenges of the crisis, there is little quantitative analysis of its consequences for developing countries. We use national economywide models to measure the near-term impacts of the crisis on agrifood systems, poverty, and food insecurity in 19 countries. Despite wide variations across countries, results confirm the adverse impacts of the crisis, with a total 27.2 and 22.3 million more people pushed into poverty and hunger, respectively. Agrifood systems and poverty are more vulnerable to rising fuel and fertilizer prices, whereas hunger and diet quality are more affected by higher food prices.