Russian nuclear energy diplomacy and its implications for energy security in the context of the war in Ukraine

TLDR

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Europe’s debate over reducing dependence on Russian energy has focused on fossil fuels, while Russia’s nuclear sector—providing technology, uranium, and spent‑fuel handling—has largely escaped sanctions. The study analyzes Rosatom and its subsidiaries as instruments of Russian energy statecraft and proposes a taxonomy of long‑term energy dependencies. The authors map Rosatom’s global portfolio and classify countries by the degree and intensity of dependence on its nuclear assets. The taxonomy reveals security risks tied to each dependency type, and the authors conclude that the war will weaken Rosatom’s European position and reputation, though its global standing may persist.

Abstract

Abstract Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the possibility of reducing Europe’s energy dependence on Russian resources has been hotly debated. The fossil fuel industries received most attention as European Union leaders first introduced gradual sanctions on Russian coal and later on oil and gas, while Russia responded with supply cuts. However, Russia’s role as a major player in the global nuclear power sector has remained largely below the sanctions radar, despite dependencies on Russian nuclear technology, uranium supplies and handling of spent nuclear fuel. Here we analyse the state nuclear company Rosatom and its subsidiaries as tools of Russian energy statecraft. We map the company’s global portfolio, then categorize countries where Russia is active according to the degree and intensity of dependence. We offer a taxonomy of long-term energy dependencies, highlighting specific security risks associated with each of them. We conclude that the war and Russia’s actions in the energy sector will undermine Rosatom’s position in Europe and damage its reputation as a reliable supplier, but its global standing may remain strong.