Electric vehicle batteries alone could satisfy short-term grid storage demand by as early as 2030

TLDR

The energy transition demands rapid deployment of renewable energy and electric vehicles, and EV batteries could complement renewable generation by providing short‑term grid services, but estimating the market opportunity requires understanding many socio‑technical parameters and constraints. The study quantifies the global EV battery capacity available for grid storage using an integrated model that incorporates future EV battery deployment, battery degradation, and market participation. The authors use an integrated model that incorporates future EV battery deployment, battery degradation, market participation, and both in‑use and end‑of‑vehicle‑life use phases to estimate technical capacity. The model estimates a technical capacity of 32–62 TWh by 2050, with low participation rates of 12–43 % required to meet global short‑term grid storage demand, dropping below 10 % if half of end‑of‑vehicle‑life batteries are used as stationary storage, and indicating that such demand could be met as early as 2030 in most regions, though the estimates are conservative lower bounds.

Abstract

The energy transition will require a rapid deployment of renewable energy (RE) and electric vehicles (EVs) where other transit modes are unavailable. EV batteries could complement RE generation by providing short-term grid services. However, estimating the market opportunity requires an understanding of many socio-technical parameters and constraints. We quantify the global EV battery capacity available for grid storage using an integrated model incorporating future EV battery deployment, battery degradation, and market participation. We include both in-use and end-of-vehicle-life use phases and find a technical capacity of 32-62 terawatt-hours by 2050. Low participation rates of 12%-43% are needed to provide short-term grid storage demand globally. Participation rates fall below 10% if half of EV batteries at end-of-vehicle-life are used as stationary storage. Short-term grid storage demand could be met as early as 2030 across most regions. Our estimates are generally conservative and offer a lower bound of future opportunities.