Coal-fired power plant CCUS project comprehensive benefit evaluation and forecasting model study

Abstract

As an important means to reduce CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants, CCUS project has received more and more attention. In this paper, the comprehensive benefits of CCUS project in coal-fired power plants are defined as economic benefits, environmental benefits and energy benefits, and comprehensive evaluation and prediction analysis of CCUS project in coal-fired power plants are made from these three aspects. The goodness-of-fit of the constructed comprehensive evaluation model can reach 0.99, and the ratio of economic, environmental and energy benefits is about 5: 9: 1. Among them, the best scenario of policy influence, economic development and technological progress can promote CCUS project with benefits of 6.51%, 6.56% and 13.07% respectively. Through case analysis, it can be calculated that when the service life of CCUS project reaches 21.7 years, the investment cost can be recovered from the economic benefits. In the prediction model, the goodness of fit of the economic benefit prediction model is up to 0.95, in which the carbon capture cost of CCUS technology, operation and maintenance cost and carbon price fluctuation play a major role. The goodness of fit of the environmental benefit prediction model can reach 0.90, in which the carbon capture capacity of CCUS project and the world environmental situation are the main influencing factors, and the goodness of fit of the energy benefit prediction model can reach up to 0.95, which is mainly affected by the energy consumption level of CCUS project. The research results show that CCUS project of coal-fired power plants at home and abroad has a good development prospect and remarkable comprehensive benefits. This paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions that are beneficial to the development of CCUS project in coal-fired power plants, with a view to providing empirical evidence for the evaluation and decision-making of CCUS project in coal-fired power plants.