Short-run and long-run effects of ESG policies on value creation and the cost of equity of firms

Abstract

Despite the general trend to include ESG scores in the evaluation of firm performance, the effect of ESG policies on the market value of companies is currently a subject of debate. In this paper we propose a dynamic version of Ohlson’s model under time-varying discount rates consistent with the Campbell–Shiller present value identity. This enables differentiation between short term and long term implications of ESG performance on value creation, as well as income and substitution effects. Our results suggest that, although ESG policies imply almost no effects in the short-run, at longer horizons, better ESG performance results in lower value creation, mainly due to substitution effects channeled to market value via higher long-term discount rates. Our results are consistent with ESG strategies implying transitory effects on the cost of equity and the market value, which may result from time-varying investor preferences, long-term reputational penalties, or market misvaluation.