Modeling Grain Yield in China with Uncertain Time Series Analysis

Abstract

Grain yield is an important factor related to the stable operation of a country’s social economy. This paper employs uncertain time series analysis (UTSA) to model rice grain yield in China, including order selection, parameter estimation, residual analysis, uncertain hypothesis test and forecast. By analyzing the characteristics of the residual plot, the reason of using uncertain time series analysis instead of probabilistic time series analysis is explained.