The Evolving Impact of Robots on Jobs

Abstract

The authors examine the impact of industrial robots on US labor markets between 2005 and 2016. Because some industries adopt robots more intensively, growth in robot stocks more heavily affect local labor markets with larger employment shares in those industries. This robot exposure variation occurs across 722 commuting zones in the continental United States. Analyzing the five-year intervals within this period, the authors find that robot exposure reduces employment in the earlier periods but augments employment in the more recent periods. Similarly, the effect of robot exposure on the local wage is initially negative but gradually rebounds and turns positive in more recent years. The evolving influence of robots is primarily driven by the automotive industry, in which digitization and automation have not only increased labor productivity but also created new tasks. Findings show evidence of spillover effects on other industries within and outside of manufacturing, which may be explained by input-output linkages and aggregate demand effects.